2016 - The Battle of Five States

Elections 2016 

As you all know, the state assembly elections are going to take place in five states after two months. Two North East states – West Bengal and Assam, whereas two South states– Tamil Nadu and Kerala and one Union territory Puducherry (or Pondicherry). Let’s analyse the current political condition and the previous assembly results in these five states.

1. West Bengal: West Bengal is politically one of the most important states having 42 Lok Sabha seats and 294 Vidhan Sabha (Assembly) seats. The 2011 legislative election was historic for West Bengal and for All India Trinamool Congress. The election marked the defeat of longest- serving democratically elected Communist party government in the world, ending the 34 years rule of Left front government. The Left party Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee himself lost the election from Jadavpur seat. It was an absolute majority for Trinamool Congress.

TMC fought the 2011 state assembly elections in alliance with Congress party under the UPA (United Progressive Alliance) and on the opposite side, there was a Left front, i.e CPIM, CPI and other parties. The UPA won 227 seats (TMC – 184, INC - 42) whereas the Left front won 62 seats.

But the political equations are different in 2016. TMC is no longer a part of UPA. It is a three dimensional scenario, TMC, Congress and Left. BJP is also trying its best to perform better in this election. There is a possibility for an alliance in Bengal, as the Congress and Left state leadership want an electoral alliance, but the final decision will be taken by Party high command. If this alliance takes place then it will be a threat for TMC as per the political pundits.

2. Tamil Nadu: Tamil Nadu has 39 Lok Sabha seats and 234 Vidhan Sabha (Assembly) seats. Generally in Tamil Nadu, the power oscillates between two major alliances AIADMK+ and DMK+. In 2011 assembly elections, the ruling party Karunanidhi’s DMK (Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam) was defeated by J Jaylalithaa’s AIADMK (All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam). The Congress party was in alliance with DMK, whereas Vijaykanth’s DMDK (Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam) was in alliance with AIADMK. BJP was not part of any alliance.

AIADMK won 2011 elections by huge margin. It was a landslide victory of AIADMK alliance. AIADMK+ won 203 seats whereas DMK+ only managed to win 31 seats and J Jaylalithaa became Chief Minister of the state for the third time.

Now the 2016 assembly elections are two months away, all parties have started their campaigning. The Congress party has already announced to contest the election under DMK alliance. BJP has also started to approach DMDK and PMK for possible pact, but nothing is finalised yet. AIADMK is seems to be not interested in alliance.

3. Kerala: Kerala has 20 Lok Sabha seats and 140 Vidhan Sabha (Assembly) seats. There are two major political alliances in Kerala. The UDF (United Democratic Front) led by Indian National Congress and the LDF (Left Democratic Front) coalition of leftist parties, led by Communist Party of India Marxist(CPI M).

The Congress led UDF won the 2011 state assembly elections and Ommen Chandy became the Chief Minister. The result proved to be one of the closest elections in the history of Kerala, with the UDF beating the LDF by a margin of merely 4 seats. UDF won 72 seats whereas LDF won 68 seats.

The similar political situation is there in 2016. The two major alliances UDF and LDF are major contenders. There is a neck to neck fight between these two. BJP is also trying its best to open its account for the first time.

4. Assam: Assam is politically one of the most important North Eastern state having 14 Lok Sabha and 126 Vidhan Sabha (Assembly) seats. The major political parties in Assam are Indian National Congress, All India United Democratic Front(AIUDF), Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), Bodoland People’s Front and Bhartiya Janta Party.

It was a landslide victory for Congress in 2011 elections. Congress won 78 seats whereas AIUDF won 18 seats. The Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi was sworn in for the third straight term.Tarun Gogoi becomes the second Chief Minister to be elected Chief Minister for the third consecutive term.

As the assembly elections are two months away, all parties have started their campaigning. The Congress VP Rahul Gandhi visited Assam organised rallies, Padyatras and Jan Jagran Yatra. BJP has declared Sarbananda Sonowal as their Chief Ministerial candidate. BJP is also trying to form an alliance with regional parties.

5. Pondicherry : The Indian Union Territory of Puducherry has 30 Vidhan Sabha (Assembly) seats and 1 Lok Sabha seat. In 2011, there were two major alliances. On one side there were Congress, DMK, PMK and VCK and the other alliance was headed by All India N.R Congress with AIADMK, DMDK, CPIM and CPI. The alliance headed by All India N.R congress won the elections. The AINRC won 15 seats whereas Congress won 7 seats.

The Congress has already tied up with DMK again for 2016 assembly elections, following a deal in Tamil Nadu, but with a difference- in Puducherry Congress is the dominant partner.

So that’s the overview of the political conditions of the five states, which are going to contest assembly elections after two months. Will update you about the opinion polls, once they are out.

Stay tuned for more updates and feel free to comment.